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DynamiteCop!

I'm 100% banking on 2021 for next-gen now

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After seeing that keynote today and the reveal of Radeon VII it doesn't seem like even 2020 is feasible for a next-gen release, and if it did happen the system would have to be grossly underpowered or expensive. AMD's top GPU now is an RTX 2080 equivalent which is quite good but that is their top GPU and it's $700. 

 

Vega 56 is $370 and Vega 64 is $400, I think it couldn't be made any clearer that to implement something of the level of either of these cards would not be feasible for at least another year, and even then either configuration would be expensive. Also the latter based off of 56 would be too little of a jump to be worth it while 64 could be considered acceptable but again either would break the bank. 

 

On top of this we're expecting Ryzen based CPU's in these consoles. How is that supposed to happen in 2019 with a Vega 56/64 level GPU? It can't, it's impossible, how is that supposed to happen in 2020? It's highly improbable and would be expensive as hell. 

 

It's 2021, it has to be, otherwise we're in for either consoles that are way too much money or are simply subpar in terms of compute.

Edited by DynamiteCop!

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i think fall 2020, at the earliest. the ps4 is still selling like crazy. 

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11 minutes ago, -GD- said:

i think fall 2020, at the earliest. the ps4 is still selling like crazy. 

Yeah, there's no reason to yet even for Microsoft. 

 

That's why when people were talking about the Xbox One X and wondering why they didn't go Ryzen and Vega I told them that even if Microsoft wanted to make a more powerful console they couldn't, even if they delayed that system until a 2018 release it would have been exactly what they released in 2017 because the reality is they maxed out what was available.

 

Right now we're in this void or purgatory where nothing new is available yet, Jaguar is transitioning to Ryzen, Polaris is transitioning to Vega but for the semi-custom market both of those things are still extremely new, and extremely expensive. To create something that blows the doors off the Pro and X in 2020 it's not financially feasible, and it may not even be feasible availability or engineering wise. 

 

This stuff has to age a bit so it not only becomes affordable but also matures so it can reach a certain spec that is viable for next-gen at an affordable price. 2020 even seems too close for that to happen. 

Edited by DynamiteCop!
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As long as it's not 2019. That's too early. Not ready to move on to another gen just yet. Especially not with the fucking awesome line-up of games this year.

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5 minutes ago, DynamiteCop! said:

Yeah, there's no reason to yet even for Microsoft. 

 

That's why when people were talking about the Xbox One X and wondering why they didn't go Ryzen and Vega I told them that even if Microsoft wanted to make a more powerful console they couldn't, even if they delayed that system until a 2018 release it would have been exactly what they released in 2017 because the reality is they maxed out what was available.

 

Right now we're in this void or purgatory where nothing new is available yet, Jaguar is transitioning to Ryzen, Polaris is transitioning to Vega but for the semi-custom market both of those things are still extremely new, and extremely expensive. To create something that blows the doors off the Pro and X in 2020 it's not financially feasible, and it may not even be feasible availability or engineering wise. 

 

This stuff has to age a bit so it not only becomes affordable but also matures so it can reach a certain spec that is viable for next-gen at an affordable price. 2020 even seems too close for that to happen. 

yeah, the mid-gen refresh threw a curveball, which i like.  the one x is still a very powerful machine. the ps4pro is solid, but it's not a 4k machine (unlike the one x).  so, i can see sony dropping something first. but i'm ok with 2021. devs continue to raise the bar with what's available. 

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Just now, -GD- said:

yeah, the mid-gen refresh threw a curveball, which i like.  the one x is still a very powerful machine. the ps4pro is solid, but it's not a 4k machine (unlike the one x).  so, i can see sony dropping something first. but i'm ok with 2021. devs continue to raise the bar with what's available. 

I think people at this point are banking more on 2020 because Sony went dark about games, and canceled E3 rather than anything that actually has to do with the readiness of hardware in the market. 

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The keynote doesn't even indicate anything you're saying. There's so many factors and variables in play it's not even comparable to a console hardware launch window.

 

1.) Vega is old, like 2016 old, and all they did was shrink it down from 14nm to 7nm and up the clocks. Vega was designed as a workstation card with HBM in mind, not a traditional gaming card. It was designed specifically for Apple and their trash can HEDT Mac Pro. It's been stated over and over how much of a mess the development of the Mac Pro and Vega were which is probably what prompted Raj to jump ship in the first place or the fact that 2/3rds of his team were dedicated to PS5. I don't think they're ever going to make a Vega that supports GDDR5/5X/6. It's just not going to happen.

 

2.) Navi is being designed in collaboration with SIE and is going to support both HBM and GDDR6. Navi is based on their next generation GCN architecture which is going to be solely based on gaming, but it's not going to be the end all be all or competition to NVIDIA. Navi is the last of GCN (supposedly) before they attempt their Ryzen-like push in GPU architecture. Who knows what the advancements are going to be with Navi versus Vega.

 

3.) Computex is in May, where all the details will start coming out about Ryzen and Navi(?). You watched the conference, right? Su said they were going to talk more about their next generation shit later in the year (probably Computex).

 

So far the rumors have mostly been true except for segmentation and pricing announcements of Ryzen 3000 series because there was none. 8C/16T comparable or better than current Intel high end desktop CPUs? Check. Vega 7nm for gamers? Check.

 

Also, you don't look at a AIB or reference card and base pricing on that, that's ridiculous. These cards are produced at significantly less volume, the margins are usually 35-40% and we don't even know what the yields are for the 7nm process. The fact that they even decided to push a 7nm Vega II card and it's coming out this soon spells excellent news for a next generation console launch next year.

Edited by lynux3

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1 minute ago, DynamiteCop! said:

I think people at this point are banking more on 2020 because Sony went dark about games, and canceled E3 rather than anything that actually has to do with the readiness of hardware in the market. 

Or reputable insiders have indicated 2020 as the launch year... which they leaked prior to Sony announcing anything. Put two and two together and it makes it slightly more credible, but obviously not confirmed.

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I bet you can't wait for next gen considering what an utter joke and failure it has been for MS this gen.  

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2019 will bring weak hardware or very high price 

2020 will bring better hardware at a high price , prob 500

I think 2021 will bring the best hardware for value , giving Sony the option to luanch a pretty high power box for 400 

 

Ms will probably have a 300 dollar box and a 500 dollar box regardless of 20 or 21 

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Just now, Team 2019 said:

2021 is a joke. Literally no one thinks that's ever happening. 

Keep thinking that while it's in the midst of happening. 

 

What hardware is going to be in the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Anaconda?

Edited by DynamiteCop!

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4 minutes ago, DynamiteCop! said:

Keep thinking that while it's in the midst of happening. 

 

What hardware is going to be in the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Anaconda?

7nm AMD solutions, within a 400-500 BOM cost probably with an initial lose. Navi, Ryzen 2, GDDR6. 

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1 minute ago, Team 2019 said:

7nm AMD solutions, within a 400-500 BOM cost probably with an initial lose. Navi, Ryzen 2, GDDR6. 

And how exactly do you foresee this as being affordable to happen in 2020?

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