Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Goukosan

Did Tulsi or Kamla make it?

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Literal Nazi Rudolf Hess said:

What's an o'Rourke 

I think he's a homeless man that wants to take people's guns to buy alcohol.

 

2 hours ago, Cookester15 said:

Oh so they upped the requirements,  good.

They used the same two month window for the September debate, too. The October debate had a three month window, but nothing would have changed if they had just gone with a two month window for that as well. Castro and Gabbard were the two closest to not qualifying for it and they both had 4 qualifying polls between July 28th and September 28th.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Goukosan said:

She is still in the debate while Tulsi is trying to get back in :tom5:

She's polling lower than Tulsi now. Lol #toptiercandidate 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Cookester15 said:

She's polling lower than Tulsi now. Lol #toptiercandidate 

Tulsi is still not in the debate yet is she? :tom5:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Goukosan said:

Is she in yet? 

Im not sure, I believe she just needs 1 more poll. Either 3% nationally or 5% in an early state poll.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Joy should be embarrassed. Fucking disgusting woman and a shill for the corporate warmonger neolibs.

 

 

Lmao joy made Meghan McCain look good :mj:

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That new Quinnipiac has Buttigieg 1 point behind Warren based on first choice votes and tied based on first and second choice votes.

 

Is that defeat from the jaws of victory I smell? :ben:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

That new Quinnipiac has Buttigieg 1 point behind Warren based on first choice votes and tied based on first and second choice votes.

 

Is that defeat from the jaws of victory I smell? :ben:

It was his new Obamaesque ad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Cookester15 said:

It was his new Obamaesque ad

Nah, too recent. He's shifted to being more of a moderate which seems to have really helped him in Iowa. Still 3 months away, but it'd be pretty interesting if he took the state and what would happen with Biden supporters if another moderate candidate looked electable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I love Buttigieg for the fact that he helps keep Biden's polling down. He's the buffer.

 

Buttigieg hurt's Biden in the Northern states, so that Warren or Sanders could beat him and get the delegates.

 

And then in the South, its really doubtful that Buttigieg wins anything, but maybe he and Kamala Harris can help drag down Biden just enough for Sanders and Warren to win near-half of those states.

 

And then Sanders and Warren are going to clean house in the Northeast and on the West Coast, and then its just a matter of one of then conceding, or them joining together, and they combine their delegates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Cookester15 said:

Texas a swing state. :ben:

 

Also not sure why you would scroll into early October results to grab that Texas poll, but ignore the additional polls for the other states that have Warren doing better than the NY Times/Siena poll has her at.

 

Let's show all the data you're talking about, throw in Wisconsin since you left it out, and include any other data points from the last month to get a better idea of the situation. Pennsylvania and Nevada don't have any other polls from the last month, which is why just the polls you linked are included for those states.

 

Florida: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 46, Trump 44 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Trump 46, Warren 42 Trump +4
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Trump 45, Sanders 44 Trump +1
Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Warren UNF Trump 43, Warren 46 Warren +3

(Hurr durr let's run a poll that compares Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris against Trump but leave out Sanders. Good job, UNF)

 

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 46, Trump 44 Biden +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Warren 45, Trump 47 Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Sanders 47, Trump 46 Sanders +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren Marquette Warren 47, Trump 46 Warren +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders Marquette Sanders 48, Trump 46 Sanders +2

 

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Warren 44, Trump 46 Trump +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Sanders 44, Trump 45 Trump +1

 

Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 49, Trump 51 Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 51, Warren 49 Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 50, Trump 50 Tie

 

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 45, Trump 44 Biden +1
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Warren 40, Trump 45 Trump +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Sanders 46, Trump 42 Sanders +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 56, Trump 44 Biden +12
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 54, Trump 46 Warren +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 57, Trump 43 Sanders +14

 

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Trump 48, Warren 44 Trump +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Sanders 44, Trump 48 Trump +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren PPP (D) Trump 46, Warren 49 Warren +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Sanders 50, Trump 47 Sanders +3

 

Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
Arizona: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Trump 47, Warren 46 Trump +1
Arizona: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Trump 49, Sanders 45 Trump +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 50 Tie
Arizona: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 50, Warren 50 Tie
Arizona: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 51, Sanders 49 Trump +2

 

Iowa: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Trump 45, Biden 44 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Trump 47, Warren 40 Trump +7
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Trump 47, Sanders 43 Trump +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Trump 51, Biden 49 Trump +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 51, Warren 49 Trump +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 49, Sanders 51 Sanders +2

 

So the first thing to note is that Sanders doesn't win most of these states based on the NY Times/Siena polling, so I'm not sure where you got that idea from. He does substantially better than Warren, but he would still lose the election. Only Biden would beat Trump if we went off the NYT/Sienna polling.

 

While that might look problematic for progressives, the NY Times/Siena poll has a much higher representation of independents in their polling than elsewhere. It's the most lopsided in Michigan where the NY Times/Siena poll had 44% of respondents identify as independent, where as the Emerson poll that shows 11%, 13%, and 10% swings compared to the NYT/Sienna poll for Biden, Warren, and Sanders, respectively, had 29% of respondents identify as independent. Daily tracking for 2018 in Michigan by Gallup had only 15% of respondents identify as independent.

 

It doesn't make the NYT/Siena poll bad or anything, but the NYT/Siena poll doesn't seem as indicative of the voting landscape as other polls to derive H2H matchups beyond what the data represents. Not that it really matters as if you're looking at a single data point to come to conclusions based on data within the margin of error then you're kind of fucking up anyway. Chalk it up on the low end of polling data thus far and see what happens over the next few months once we have a decent number of data points.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

Texas a swing state. :ben:

 

Also not sure why you would scroll into early October results to grab that Texas poll, but ignore the additional polls for the other states that have Warren doing better than the NY Times/Siena poll has her at.

 

Let's show all the data you're talking about, throw in Wisconsin since you left it out, and include any other data points from the last month to get a better idea of the situation. Pennsylvania and Nevada don't have any other polls from the last month, which is why just the polls you linked are included for those states.

 

Florida: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 46, Trump 44 Biden +2
Florida: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Trump 46, Warren 42 Trump +4
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Trump 45, Sanders 44 Trump +1
Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 48, Trump 43 Biden +5
Florida: Trump vs. Warren UNF Trump 43, Warren 46 Warren +3

(Hurr durr let's run a poll that compares Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris against Trump but leave out Sanders. Good job, UNF)

 

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 46, Trump 44 Biden +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Warren 45, Trump 47 Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Sanders 47, Trump 46 Sanders +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Marquette Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Warren Marquette Warren 47, Trump 46 Warren +1
Wisconsin: Trump vs. Sanders Marquette Sanders 48, Trump 46 Sanders +2

 

Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 46, Trump 45 Biden +1
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Warren 44, Trump 46 Trump +2
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Sanders 44, Trump 45 Trump +1

 

Nevada: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 49, Trump 51 Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 51, Warren 49 Trump +2
Nevada: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 50, Trump 50 Tie

 

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 45, Trump 44 Biden +1
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Warren 40, Trump 45 Trump +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Sanders 46, Trump 42 Sanders +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 56, Trump 44 Biden +12
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 54, Trump 46 Warren +8
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 57, Trump 43 Sanders +14

 

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 46, Trump 48 Trump +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Trump 48, Warren 44 Trump +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Sanders 44, Trump 48 Trump +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Warren PPP (D) Trump 46, Warren 49 Warren +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 51, Trump 46 Biden +5
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders PPP (D) Sanders 50, Trump 47 Sanders +3

 

Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3
Arizona: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Trump 47, Warren 46 Trump +1
Arizona: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Trump 49, Sanders 45 Trump +4
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 50, Trump 50 Tie
Arizona: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 50, Warren 50 Tie
Arizona: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 51, Sanders 49 Trump +2

 

Iowa: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena Trump 45, Biden 44 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren NY Times/Siena Trump 47, Warren 40 Trump +7
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders NY Times/Siena Trump 47, Sanders 43 Trump +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Trump 51, Biden 49 Trump +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 51, Warren 49 Trump +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 49, Sanders 51 Sanders +2

 

So the first thing to note is that Sanders doesn't win most of these states based on the NY Times/Siena polling, so I'm not sure where you got that idea from. He does substantially better than Warren, but he would still lose the election. Only Biden would beat Trump if we went off the NYT/Sienna polling.

 

While that might look problematic for progressives, the NY Times/Siena poll has a much higher representation of independents in their polling than elsewhere. It's the most lopsided in Michigan where the NY Times/Siena poll had 44% of respondents identify as independent, where as the Emerson poll that shows 11%, 13%, and 10% swings compared to the NYT/Sienna poll for Biden, Warren, and Sanders, respectively, had 29% of respondents identify as independent. Daily tracking for 2018 in Michigan by Gallup had only 15% of respondents identify as independent.

 

It doesn't make the NYT/Siena poll bad or anything, but the NYT/Siena poll doesn't seem as indicative of the voting landscape as other polls to derive H2H matchups beyond what the data represents. Not that it really matters as if you're looking at a single data point to come to conclusions based on data within the margin of error then you're kind of fucking up anyway. Chalk it up on the low end of polling data thus far and see what happens over the next few months once we have a decent number of data points.

Well jehurey was trying to tell me Texas is a purple state and will go blue soon. She's not even close there, that's the most recent poll from RCP, so that's why I posted it. 

 

Warren definitely will not win Texas especially after her calling Latinos Latinx, the fuck is she doing? Pandering and virtue signaling to rich white liberals is only going to keep the minority vote at home. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Cookester15 said:

Well jehurey was trying to tell me Texas is a purple state and will go blue soon. She's not even close there, that's the most recent poll from RCP, so that's why I posted it. 

 

Warren definitely will not win Texas especially after her calling Latinos Latinx, the fuck is she doing? Pandering and virtue signaling to rich white liberals is only going to keep the minority vote at home. 

How do you figure?

 

You got anything that shows that Latinos really hate that term being used?

 

 

Edited by jehurey

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Cookester15 said:

Well jehurey was trying to tell me Texas is a purple state and will go blue soon. She's not even close there, that's the most recent poll from RCP, so that's why I posted it. 

It's not quite purple yet, but it's trending there.

 

2000: +21.3% (R)

2004: +21.9% (R)

2008: +11.8% (R)

2012: +15.8% (R)

2016: +9% (R)

 

Here's the Trump vs. Clinton polling data from 2016:

 

Final Results -- -- 52.2 43.2 Trump +9.0
RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 -- 50.0 38.3 Trump +11.7
Emerson* 10/31 - 11/1 700 LV 49 35 Trump +14
NBC/WSJ/Marist 10/30 - 11/1 679 LV 49 41 Trump +8
CBS 11/Dixie Strategies* 10/27 - 10/29 980 LV 52 39 Trump +13

 

Trump vs. Warren

 

RCP Average 5/29 - 10/27 -- -- 48.0 44.0 Trump +4.0
UT/Texas Tribune 10/18 - 10/27 1200 LV 2.8 46 39 Trump +7
DMN/Emerson 8/1 - 8/3 1033 RV 3.0 52 48 Trump +4
Quinnipiac 5/29 - 6/4 1159 RV 3.4 46 45 Trump +1

 

Trump vs. Biden

 

RCP Average 5/29 - 10/27 -- -- 46.3 46.0 Trump +0.3
UT/Texas Tribune 10/18 - 10/27 1200 LV 2.8 46 39 Trump +7
DMN/Emerson 8/1 - 8/3 1033 RV 3.0 49 51 Biden +2
Quinnipiac 5/29 - 6/4 1159 RV 3.4 44 48 Biden +4

 

Trump vs. Sanders

 

RCP Average 5/29 - 10/27 -- -- 47.0 45.0 Trump +2.0
UT/Texas Tribune 10/18 - 10/27 1200 LV 2.8 45 40 Trump +5
DMN/Emerson 8/1 - 8/3 1033 RV 3.0 49 51 Sanders +2
Quinnipiac 5/29 - 6/4 1159 RV 3.4 47 44 Trump +3

 

31 minutes ago, Cookester15 said:

Warren definitely will not win Texas especially after her calling Latinos Latinx, the fuck is she doing? Pandering and virtue signaling to rich white liberals is only going to keep the minority vote at home. 

 

She definitely wouldn't win Texas. I doubt whoever the Dem candidate is will get within 5% in 2020, personally.

 

The Latinx thing is dumb considering the entire language is gendered, but I hadn't heard of it being divisive in that community. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×