We're now in a recession: US GDP shrinks 0.9% in second quarter

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12 hours ago, Substatic said:

Global recession....blames Biden.

 

It's not surprising Trump had the lowest educated voter base in history. 

 

EU's GDP has been up the last two quarters. Where did you get your degrees from? 

 

[Substatic 420]

2 hours ago, Saucer said:

 

 Where did you get your degrees from? 

 

 

 

Certainly not PragerU,

 

The global recession drum beat is getting louder | Reuters

I.M.F. Warns That a Global Recession Could Soon Be at Hand - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

 

 

 

 

You should tell the IMF about "Eurostat", they might change their outlook with this new data.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Substatic

[Substatic 420]

17 hours ago, jehurey said:

LOL, you just admitted its a worldwide recession, and then tried to blame it on Biden.within the same sentence, even.

 

Lmao.

[Substatic 420]

18 hours ago, Twinblade said:

 
democrats including Biden REFUSE to even call it a recession. 

 

Not just Democrats.  

 

Recession Arbiters Reject Idea That 2 GDP Drops Spell a US Downturn - Bloomberg

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - Media Bias/Fact Check (mediabiasfactcheck.com)

Quote

 

The official arbiters of US recessions aren’t close to making a call that a downturn is under way, and may end up concluding 2022’s first half was part of a continuing expansion.

The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two quarterly contractions in gross domestic product is conclusive of a recession. Instead, the group of eight elite academic economists looks at half a dozen monthly economic reports to see a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

The committee doesn’t believe in “the two-quarter-declining GDP rule,” NBER President and Chief Executive Officer James Poterba said via email. That was after data Thursday showed gross domestic product fell at a 0.9% annualized rate in the second quarter after a 1.6% drop in the first three months of the year. He declined to comment on the current economy.

 

 

But it is likely soon, as it is likely globally. 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Substatic

[Twinblade★ 3,892]

24 minutes ago, Substatic said:

 

Not just Democrats.  

 

Recession Arbiters Reject Idea That 2 GDP Drops Spell a US Downturn - Bloomberg

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - Media Bias/Fact Check (mediabiasfactcheck.com)

 

But it is likely soon, as it is likely globally. 

 

Lol enough with the bullshit stats and fact checks. We already know they don't translate to what happens in the real world.

 

And you know whats interesting? Anytime there's a small positive change in the U.S economy (which has been rare lately) Biden and his administration immediately take credit for it. However, when the opposite happens and the economy shits itself they immediately deflect the blame to something like COVD or Putin. How exactly does that work? You accept responsibility for only the good stuff but blame everything else when the bad stuff happens?

 

Democrats are a joke and nobody takes them seriously.

[Substatic 420]

24 minutes ago, Twinblade said:

 

Lol enough with the bullshit stats and fact checks. We already know they don't translate to what happens in the real world.

 

And you know whats interesting? Anytime there's a small positive change in the U.S economy (which has been rare lately) Biden and his administration immediately take credit for it. However, when the opposite happens and the economy shits itself they immediately deflect the blame to something like COVD or Putin. How exactly does that work? You accept responsibility for only the good stuff but blame everything else when the bad stuff happens?

 

Democrats are a joke and nobody takes them seriously.

 

I'm just fact checking the title of this thread and your post, it's objectively false at time of creation going by the NBER.

 

Just like global recession, both are looming and likely. 

 

 

[Twinblade★ 3,892]

42 minutes ago, Substatic said:

 

I'm just fact checking the title of this thread and your post, it's objectively false at time of creation going by the NBER.

 

Just like global recession, both are looming and likely. 

 

 

 

Nobody is buying it. You and the 'experts' have been wrong for the past 2 years. How long has Biden been saying inflation has been 'transitory' for? I don't understand how you can continue to be this gullible and act like everything is ok

 

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1 hour ago, Substatic said:

 

Certainly not PragerU,

 

The global recession drum beat is getting louder | Reuters

I.M.F. Warns That a Global Recession Could Soon Be at Hand - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

 

 

You should tell the IMF about "Eurostat", they might change their outlook with this new data.

 

Evidently JerryU because you just moved the goal posts from "there's a global recession" to "well one might come..." 

 

Great job. 

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1 hour ago, Substatic said:

 

I'm just fact checking the title of this thread and your post, it's objectively false at time of creation going by the NBER.

 

You're objectively misusing the word "objective." There is no objective definition of a recession. There are only subjective norms.

 

2 hours ago, Substatic said:

Not just Democrats.  

 

Well them too. At least until a few days ago. Biden's director of the NEC:

 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Saucer

[Substatic 420]

1 hour ago, Saucer said:

 

You're objectively misusing the word "objective." There is no objective definition of a recession. There are only subjective norms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

These opinions are great and all, but the NBER disagrees with you,

 

 

Quote

 

The official arbiters of US recessions aren’t close to making a call that a downturn is under way, and may end up concluding 2022’s first half was part of a continuing expansion.

The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two quarterly contractions in gross domestic product is conclusive of a recession. Instead, the group of eight elite academic economists looks at half a dozen monthly economic reports to see a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.”

The committee doesn’t believe in “the two-quarter-declining GDP rule,” NBER President and Chief Executive Officer James Poterba said via email. That was after data Thursday showed gross domestic product fell at a 0.9% annualized rate in the second quarter after a 1.6% drop in the first three months of the year.

 

 

 

Officially, we aren't in a recession yet.  Unless you have a superior source of citation than NBER. Which you did not provide.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Substatic

[Substatic 420]

2 hours ago, Saucer said:

 

Evidently JerryU because you just moved the goal posts from "there's a global recession" to "well one might come..." 

 

Great job. 

 

Strawman, and I knew you'd run to it after the IMF had your number.

 

I never said there is a global recession, or that we are in one. You won't quote me on saying those words. I just said global recession. I didn't think I would have to put "upcomming" or "looming", but I also didn't think anyone would run to such a desperate gotchya' on semantics. But here you are.

 

1. There is neither a global or US recession at the time being. 

2. USA's recession occurring first would no longer exclude it from being a part of a future global recession trend. Not all countries officially enter a recession at the same exact date during a global recession.  This should be common sense to anyone even mildly studied in economics.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Substatic

[Substatic 420]

2 hours ago, Twinblade said:

 

Nobody is buying it. 

 

 

The NBER is a better source than a political novice saying "no it can't be true!" in a video game forum.

 

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18 minutes ago, Substatic said:

 

These opinions are great and all, but the NBER disagrees with you

 

 

Which is also an opinion.

 

19 minutes ago, Substatic said:

Officially, we aren't in a recession yet. 

 

By which authority is NBER the "official" determinate of whether we're in a recession? Is there a federal statue giving them this authority? Because a lefty Bloomberg writer said so? Inform us.

 

24 minutes ago, Substatic said:

Unless you have a superior source of citation than NBER.

 

Sure, I'll go with Biden's  NEC director from like a week back before he changed his mind on the definition to cover his boss' ass.

 

 

 

[Substatic 420]

4 minutes ago, Saucer said:

 

 

 

 

Sure, I'll go with Biden's  NEC director from like a week back before he changed his mind on the definition to cover his boss' ass.

 

 

The NBER is a superior source than Biden's NEC director. He flip flops too much, and clearly lacks objectivity. 

 

Quote

 

The second-quarter GDP report brought the economy in line with a common definition of recession. But we won’t know for sure if it officially is declared one at least for months.

That’s because the official arbiter in such matters is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and it doesn’t use the same definition as the one commonly accepted of at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

 

Rather, the NBER defines recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

That could mean consecutive quarters of decline. In fact, every time since 1948 that GDP has fallen for at least two straight quarters, the NBER ultimately has declared a recession. Second-quarter GDP dropped 0.9%, while the first quarter declined by 1.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

But the NBER doesn’t even use GDP as a major factor in its thinking, and it declared a recession in 2001 without there being consecutive declines.

 

 

The economy may look like it's in recession, but we still don't know for sure (cnbc.com)

 

The NBER officially declares a recession, which they have not done. Is your only source to counter them Brian Deese? Big oof.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Substatic

[54212 432]

25 minutes ago, Substatic said:

I never said there is a global recession, or that we are in one.

 

Yeah you did. 

 

11 minutes ago, Substatic said:

Global recession....blames Biden.

 

It's not surprising Trump had the lowest educated voter base in history. 

 

Lying's really not a good strategy in this case and it's far below the honor of a noble Sikh.

[54212 432]

3 minutes ago, Substatic said:

 

The NBER is a superior source than Biden's NEC director. He flip flops too much, and clearly lacks objectivity. 

 

Nah. Bunch of leftist economist on that board.

 

4 minutes ago, Substatic said:

The NBER officially declares a recession...

 

You're avoiding the question: By what authority is the NBER the "official" determinate? 

 

I mean you have to avoid the question because there is no federal statute but keep going.

[Substatic 420]

6 minutes ago, Saucer said:

 

Nah. Bunch of leftist economist on that board.

 

 

This is not a real counter-citation.  You are embarrassing yourself. 

 

 

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - Media Bias/Fact Check (mediabiasfactcheck.com)

 

I require an equally credible source saying the opposite. 

 

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Substatic

[Substatic 420]

7 minutes ago, Saucer said:

 

Yeah you did. 

 

 

I said global recession. Clearly in that quote.  You said I said "there's a global recession". I literally just said global recession.

 

These kind of semantic straw-men aren't going to work. The IMF has your number, and you lost.

[54212 432]

10 minutes ago, Substatic said:

 

This is not a real counter-citation.

 

 

I gave you one. Biden's NEC director from like last week. 

 

And you're still ducking the question: By what authority is the NBER the "official" determinate? 

 

Isn't cowardice one of the worst traits for a Sikh? 

[Substatic 420]

4 minutes ago, Saucer said:

 

I gave you one. Biden's NEC director from like last week. 

 

 

 

Biden's NBEC director, Brian Deese, is not a as good of a source as the NBEC. You know this. 

 

If you really want a debate on Brian Deese vs NBEC credentials.....lets do that. You know I'd love to.

 

4 minutes ago, Saucer said:

 

 

And you're still ducking the question: By what authority is the NBER the "official" determinate? 

 

 

 

 

It’s not officially a recession until this Cambridge-based group says so, and making that call is a little like ‘Fight Club’ - The Boston Globe

 

Quote

But it’s not officially a recession until a small group of experts empaneled by the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge says so — and they are known to take their time.

The private organization that the federal government has empowered to designate recessions is headquartered in a nondescript office building between Harvard and Central squares, with a parking lot next to Hubba Hubba, a self-proclaimed “sex positive” boutique. Outside economists describe its workings as mysterious, and the long wait for its recession pronouncements can be like watching for the white smoke heralding a new pope.

Their declarations carry major political implications, given recessions can doom whatever party is in power. And undoubtedly the Biden administration and congressional Democrats will be on tenterhooks awaiting its latest decision — although an announcement might not come before voters go to the polls in November.

 

 

 

This is too easy.

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by Substatic