Polish Analyst Predicts Q4 2019 as Release Window for Cyberpunk 2077

[DynamiteCop 2,086]

@Remij_ 

 

This is a prediction/opinion of stockwatch.pl, a Polish investment analysis firm.

An excerpt from their report:
 

 

Translation by a reddit user (a native polish speaker and a translator, but please take it with a grain of salt):

Cyberpunk 2077 vs RDR2: We're keeping to the estimation of a debut in Q4 of 2019, with sales of 19 million copies in Q4 alone, and income of 1.9 billion PLN (about 525 million USD). During a conference call, the Board has confirmed that quality remains the absolute highest priority for CD Projekt, and Cyberpunk 2077 will be no less elaborate and polished than RDR2. For comparison, the sales of RDR2 (gross) was 725 million USD within the first three days after it shipped, 15 million copies within the first eight days, and 17 million copies within the first twelve days (data from Take Two). The game was released only on PS4 and Xbox One consoles. With that in mind, our forecasts for CP2077 seem very reserved - remember the game will be simultaneously both on the consoles [PS4 and XBO] and PC. We also believe that the world of Cyberpunk / sci-fi should be more popular among gamers than the Wild West.

Other info from this report, as posted by the reddit user:

So basically this comes from stockwatch.pl, a pretty recommendable source of stock market information.

Besides what's translated above, the main tenets of the document are:
 

• Gwent: it's too early to tell, with the marketing campaign still on-going. Gwent is seen as a strategic experiment in the F2P multiplayer market, highly possibly before other F2P games from CDP(R). The sales are below expectations, with forecasts for downloads being lowered from 1 million to 0.5 million per year. It's not alarming, though.
• Gwent Thronebreaker: the sales are below expectations. The main marketing campaign is over, the upcoming sales will primarily come from promotional sales (nothing is planned at the moment). New campaigns may be worked on and released, but it's tied to the overall sales of Thronebreaker. The forecasts are lowered to 200k copies in Q4 2018 (from 500k), and to 200k per year starting in 2019 (from 1 million per year).
• The stock value of CDP dropped by 33% lately, but it's correlated with a general drop of 20% within the whole sector and should not be alarming by itself.
• The success of RDR2 indicates that there's still a big market for large single-player AAA games, and the very success of RDR2 [and God of War, with its accolades - my addition] forecasts a huge success for CP2077.
• The recommendation of stockwatch.pl regarding CDP(R) stock is being changed from 'Neutral' to 'Purchase', indicating an elevation in trust for market stock of the company (good news for CDP(R) and their fans) - the stock value should rise ~38% rather soon.

[jehurey 3,230]

Because they talk about 6 districts, I have the sneaking suspicion that this is how they can design it for current-gen consoles, by not having it be completely open world and having load times. And having tricks to help reduce draw distance.  And this actually helps their GOG platform by releasing a PC version that is not gimped and it causes people to prefer the PC version, and then they work on an enhanced edition for next-gen that is similar to the PC version.

 

Even then, I don't think it'll be content complete until 2020.

[Remij 4,679]

Well, I did say that CP2077 could in fact come to current gen consoles, if they butcher it enough to want to make it happen.  Truth is... while still great, the extended gameplay demo wasn't super crazy like they built it up to be.  My whole thing was that it's still extremely early and since they clearly have an agenda of making a truly impressive open world that stands above the rest, that they would eventually realize that in order to achieve that goal, they'd have to trim the current gen console fat.  I stand by that... however I'm now less certain that their ambition is that much higher than their competitors..

 

Would it surprise me to see a Q4 2019 release?  Not particularly... however I still feel like the game isn't up to their standards yet.. and I get the feeling that they are getting a little hot under the collar to get this game to the level they have been hyping at on current gen consoles.

 

So, I think no... they aren't going to release in 2019.  It will likely be a 2020 game perhaps in time for PS5 early in the year, but more likely mid to late 2020.

 

They're still looking for Senior lighting artists...

 

 

[DynamiteCop 2,086]

6 minutes ago, Remij_ said:

Well, I did say that CP2077 could in fact come to current gen consoles, if they butcher it enough to want to make it happen.  Truth is... while still great, the extended gameplay demo wasn't super crazy like they built it up to be.  My whole thing was that it's still extremely early and since they clearly have an agenda of making a truly impressive open world that stands above the rest, that they would eventually realize that in order to achieve that goal, they'd have to trim the current gen console fat.  I stand by that... however I'm now less certain that their ambition is that much higher than their competitors..

 

Would it surprise me to see a Q4 2019 release?  Not particularly... however I still feel like the game isn't up to their standards yet.. and I get the feeling that they are getting a little hot under the collar to get this game to the level they have been hyping at. 

 

So, I think no... they aren't going to release in 2019.  It will likely be a 2020 game perhaps in time for PS5 early in the year, but more likely mid to late 2020.

 

They're still looking for Senior lighting artists...

 

 

 

You sound like you've done an about face on what you've said previously, shakey, very shakey. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by DynamiteCop!

[Remij 4,679]

1 minute ago, DynamiteCop! said:

You sound like you've done an about face on what you've said previously, shakey, very shakey. 

Nah.  As time goes on... they'll realize they have to trim the fat.  I'm pretty sure at this point a PS4/XO version isn't even up and running.

 

The change from current to next gen only is coming.  I don't go back on my bets.

 

All I'm saying is that if it DOES release on current gen consoles... it's going to be WEAK.

 

Remij  

 

 

[DynamiteCop 2,086]

1 minute ago, Remij_ said:

Nah.  As time goes on... they'll realize they have to trim the fat.  I'm pretty sure at this point a PS4/XO version isn't even up and running.

 

The change from current to next gen only is coming.  I don't go back on my bets.

 

All I'm saying is that if it DOES release on current gen consoles... it's going to be WEAK.

 

Remij  

 

 

Nothing about it in the exact way it was shown looks even remotely out of the bounds of current generation console feasibility. 

[Remij 4,679]

13 minutes ago, DynamiteCop! said:

Nothing about it in the exact way it was shown looks even remotely out of the bounds of current generation console feasibility. 

The demo + what they are promising?

 

Yea it does.

[DynamiteCop 2,086]

9 minutes ago, Remij_ said:

The demo + what they are promising?

 

Yea it does.

Not really, there's so many cracks in that gameplay video in terms of what's actually taking place. It seems big and ambitious on the surface but it's all compartmentalized, assets streaming in at X distances, pop in, LoD's drawing in, shadows drawing in, NPC's drawing in, traffic drawing in. I've said this before if you look beyond 150-200 feet there's nothing, it's just empty environmental geometry, a lot of straight lines, simple shapes and blocks making up a city scape which isn't very mathematically intense. The game puts a lot up in your face to steal your focus and gaze from the backdrop, it seems dense, it seems alive, it seems like there's a lot going on when in reality there's very little beyond the immediate. 

 

There's absolutely nothing that's been shown in this video that's technologically infeasible on every current generation system down the base Xbox One itself. I think you wanted this to be more, I think the game media led people on to it being more but it's just not crazy, it's not something that's new generation defining. Sure it may push some limits of the current generation but there's nothing that screams next-generation about the presentation or mechanics of that game world. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by DynamiteCop!