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Matt (NPD) on Streaming future


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    Mat Piscatella @MatPiscatella
     · 19m

    The push to subscription and cloud based gaming services has one fundamental assumption baked in... that there is an untapped customer base out there that has balked at joining the current PC or Console gaming ecosystems. But what if this assumption proves incorrect?

 

 

    Mat Piscatella @MatPiscatella

    According to EEDAR's Gamer Segmentation Report, 2 out of 3 Americans plays Video Games of some sort.  Of those that play, half have spent $0 over the past 6 months on gaming, choosing only free to play, primarily Mobile, games.

 

 


    Mat Piscatella @MatPiscatella
     · 16m
    Antwort an @MatPiscatella

    Let's start with the 2 out of 3 that play Video Games.  Are the remaining 1 out of 3 active rejecters of Video Games, and an audience that will not adopt even Mobile games, let alone more immersive content? I'd argue that a high percentage of this group are likely exactly that.

 

    Mat Piscatella @MatPiscatella

    So then we come back to the half of the current gaming audience that is willing to spend $0 on gaming. 1 out of 3 Americans plays Video Games, but spends nothing. What subscription or cloud service could draw them in? An ad based service? Would it look a lot like Mobile now?

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I don't feel that the mobile crowd has any bearing on the console/PC streaming initiative. I think that the mobile game market and more "hardcore" streaming market will coexist without any disruption, but I do think that most game streamers will be existing userbase moving onto something more convenient.

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That's the thing. You can bring massively huge AAA games like Assassin's Creed streaming to a person's phone.

 

But does that gamer have the desire to play that big complex game? Especially if its the type of game that isn't very pickup and play and requires time and attention to be devoted to it?

 

We have had 10 years of mobile games, and that peaked back in 2012-2014.

 

The only exception to this is Fortnite, but Fornite got big on its own before it even got to mobile, so its not seen as a mobile game but rather as a popular game brought to mobile.

 

The mobile game industry becoming a big meh should be a sign about what might really happen for streaming.

 

My guess is, the guys who wait 2-4 years to finally buy a new console can now play the new games without having to buy a console. But guess what, that doesn't expand the existing gaming audience, those are the same people.

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The thing with PSnow I expect like 90% of the people that will use it are PS4/PS5 owners that already own a console. I don't see this magical growth of new users they couldn't attract before.

 

I also see very little reason why there would be major growth with so many competing services. PSNow, XCloud, and Stadia alone are going to cannabalize into each other's marketshare big time.


XCloud is going to hit a brick wall against the Steam/PC audience imo, where people would just before to play shit natively on their PC.

Edited by Team 2019
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Anyone notice how the XCloud hype died down after Sony revealed they will be using MS's back end, and there will be no "infrastructure" advantage for XCloud?

 

It almost feels like it's hype existed only in virtual competition against Sony. Now it's like both XCloud and PSnow are back burner arguement material, and doesn't reflect actual demand of either services.

 

The phone audience imo will totally not give a shit about either service, if they want this shit to grow they really need to target someone else here. If the pricing for both is overpriced shit, they won't even be able to transfer a noticeable part of their hardware users on either consoles or PC

 

Edited by Team 2019
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3 minutes ago, Team 2019 said:

Anyone notice how the XCloud hype died down after Sony revealed they will be using MS's back end, and there will be no "infrastructure" advantage for XCloud?

 

It almost feels like it's hype existed only in virtual competition against Sony. Now it's like both XCloud and PSnow are back burner arguement material, and doesn't reflect actual demand of either services.

 

The phone audience imo will totally not give a shit about either service, if they want this shit to grow they really need to target someone else here. If the pricing for both is overpriced shit, they won't even be able to transfer a noticeable part of their hardware users on either consoles or PC

 

What metric are you using to gauge the XCloud hype? :mjpls:

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1 minute ago, Goukosan said:

What metric are you using to gauge the XCloud hype? :mjpls:

According to insiders MS expects XCloud to outpaces their PC and XBOx  userbase by around 2025.

 

Just going by Xbox alone that's like 40 million active users XCloud, that sounds borderline delusional imo.

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18 minutes ago, Team 2019 said:

According to insiders MS expects XCloud to outpaces their PC and XBOx  userbase by around 2025.

 

Just going by Xbox alone that's like 40 million active users XCloud, that sounds borderline delusional imo.

You didn't answer the hype question :trump2:

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1 hour ago, Team 2019 said:

According to insiders MS expects XCloud to outpaces their PC and XBOx  userbase by around 2025.

 

Just going by Xbox alone that's like 40 million active users XCloud, that sounds borderline delusional imo.

If it's on mobile I would hardly say its delusional 

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True, but the userbase is massive , plus PC and whatever platforms they put it on . I dont see 40 million plus 7 years frok.now as being delusional .

 

What's delusional is your obsessed thoughts on almost everything xbox related 

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4 minutes ago, JONBpc said:

True, but the userbase is massive , plus PC and whatever platforms they put it on . I dont see 40 million plus 7 years frok.now as being delusional .

 

What's delusional is your obsessed thoughts on almost everything xbox related 

I have no faith in streaming outside the existing base. I can see people signing up to get access to the games they own on PS of XBox, outside that I don't think there is this huge base. I think it will be mostly console people. On PC it seems even more pointless imo.

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12 hours ago, JONBpc said:

That's because you cant believe it's happening.  Well it is , and all 3 will have it as an option 

Do you believe people like Remij that build PCs that cost as much as a new car, and eat up enough power for a mini nuclear plant are going to switch to streaming for example.

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3 hours ago, Team 2019 said:

Do you believe people like Remij that build PCs that cost as much as a new car, and eat up enough power for a mini nuclear plant are going to switch to streaming for example.

No , it's not for those people.  It's for the majority of people with pcs that cant run minecraft .

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3 hours ago, Team 2019 said:

Do you believe people like Remij that build PCs that cost as much as a new car, and eat up enough power for a mini nuclear plant are going to switch to streaming for example.

It's not about switching, it's about co-integration.

 

I can play Halo at home on my Xbox but if I have to leave I can take that experience with me on the go without having to bring my Xbox, without having to bring any extra device. Your phone which you have with you at all times is now your system on the go, and that right there segues into the Achilles heel of something like the Switch. A device like that doesn't have a future anymore because of this, so Nintendo has backed themselves into a corner. They can't go back to traditional consoles because they've already alienated themselves from that market and they can't keep on with portable devices like the Switch because it's going to exist as obsolesces to streaming and your phone. 

 

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5 minutes ago, DynamiteCop! said:

It's not about switching, it's about co-integration.

 

I can play Halo at home on my Xbox but if I have to leave I can take that experience with me on the go without having to bring my Xbox, without having to bring any extra device. Your phone which you have with you at all times is now your system on the go, and that right there segues into the Achilles heel of something like the Switch. A device like that doesn't have a future anymore because of this, so Nintendo has backed themselves into a corner. They can't go back to traditional consoles because they've already alienated themselves from that market and they can't keep on with portable devices like the Switch because it's going to exist as obsolesces to streaming and your phone. 

 

I agree on some points, but Nintendo at least for the moment is the only one that can release a dedicated handheld and have it succeed. I think that's here to stay for a long long time. It's their most successful handheld so far, only because MS and Sony won't succeed in the handheld market doesn't mean Nintendo can't keep this going for decades ahead.

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Just now, Team 2019 said:

I agree on some points, but Nintendo at least for the moment is the only one that can release a dedicated handheld and have it succeed. I think that's here to stay for a long long time. It's their most successful handheld so far, only because MS and Sony won't succeed in the handheld market doesn't mean Nintendo can't keep this going for decades ahead.

That's because streaming hasn't hit phones yet, as soon as that happens and as soon as the broad cell network can handle it (3-5 years) it's over. They just ate Nintendo's lunch and they have no out. 

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