Russia has officially invaded Ukraine

[Mr. House 3,371]

10 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

 

Facts over feelings.

That's cute how you can guarantee that everything will be fine for everyone based on the reserve's pre-winter. 

[Mr. House 3,371]

5 minutes ago, Twinblade said:

 

Please name a time in history when appeasing a genocidal dictator has actually benefitted the world in any way and resulted in a lasting peace?

Only an idiot would expect ever lasting peace. 

 

Please name a time in history when prolonging war conflicts benefitted the world in any way?

[Twinblade★ 3,935]

1 hour ago, Ramza said:

Only an idiot would expect ever lasting peace. 

 

Please name a time in history when prolonging war conflicts benefitted the world in any way?

 

Its Russia thats prolonging the war. I don't understand why you still fail to understand something so simple. They can pull their forces from the occupied territories and have them return to Russia, and the war will immediately end.

 

Ukraine doesn't have that luxury. They will always have to live in fear under the lingering threat of Russia starting renewed offensives from the occupied territories.

[Mr. House 3,371]

4 minutes ago, Twinblade said:

 

Its Russia thats prolonging the war. I don't understand why you still fail to understand something so simple. They can pull their forces from the occupied territories and have them return to Russia, and the war will immediately end.

Lmfao, and the diplomat of the year award goes to.

[Hot Sauce 2,734]

37 minutes ago, Ramza said:

That's cute how you can guarantee that everything will be fine for everyone based on the reserve's pre-winter. 

 

I never claimed to guarantee anything, I just dismissed your bloviating.

 

The energy crisis was in part predicted based on the absence of events that have already happened. October has been mild in Europe and usually marks the start of the winter period, reserves are full where as they're usually closer to 80%, 10% of the world's LNG boats are parked in waters around Europe waiting for current supply to be used, and Norway and the US have drastically increased production. Framing the potential for an energy crisis as being entirely forthcoming is fairly ignorant.

 

There are certainly reasons to be pessimistic beyond this winter, though. Chinese imports of LNG are down this year because of COVID lockdowns and Russia is still supplying some gas to Europe via pipelines in Ukraine. It's unlikely either continues to this point next year.

[Hot Sauce 2,734]

54 minutes ago, Ramza said:

Lmfao, and the diplomat of the year award goes to.

 

The irony.

[Mr. House 3,371]

31 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

 

I never claimed to guarantee anything, I just dismissed your bloviating.

 

The energy crisis was in part predicted based on the absence of events that have already happened. October has been mild in Europe and usually marks the start of the winter period, reserves are full where as they're usually closer to 80%, 10% of the world's LNG boats are parked in waters around Europe waiting for current supply to be used, and Norway and the US have drastically increased production. Framing the potential for an energy crisis as being entirely forthcoming is fairly ignorant.

 

There are certainly reasons to be pessimistic beyond this winter, though. Chinese imports of LNG are down this year because of COVID lockdowns and Russia is still supplying some gas to Europe via pipelines in Ukraine. It's unlikely either continues to this point next year.

When did I say a crisis was entirely forthcoming with any sort of certainty, I guarantee you that wasn't my intent, but talking point about the current reserves is hardly the most reassuring thing I've heard, it also most likely only stabilizes the pricing only momentarily. Which is still not good, it's a global issue that goes beyond Europe as well. I'm not sure how much the US and Norway can provide cheap energy but at least that's more reassuring.

 

As a Canadian you should know better than to rely on October to predict the upcoming winter. 

 

Why would Russia stop supplying next year and not earlier if that's one of their clear intents? I imagine they don't care much about economic contracts with NATO allied countries at this point. That pipeline is going mostly to Germany I think, right? 

 

And why would the Chinese stop selling, aren't they asking for insanely inflated prices right now? I thought they were happy with that situation. They pretty much kept selling Russian energy to the rest of Europe, haven't they? At inflated rates of course.

 

30 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

 

The irony.

All I've said is that I'm open to the idea of diplomacy. Crazy, I know. Which is absolutely all I'm saying, I never once relegated a solid plan (like I would fucking know) or anything other than saying concessions happens in diplomacy, meanwhile for you guys it's all or nothing, which is the most childish and unrealistic thing I've heard in a while.

 

The matter of fact is none of you has yet to propose a realistic scenario where this could stop, you are actually quite satisfied with the status quo it seems. 

 

 

 

[Hot Sauce 2,734]

1 hour ago, Ramza said:

When did I say a crisis was entirely forthcoming with any sort of certainty, I guarantee you that wasn't my intent

 

Framing it is 'winter is coming' is where it comes from, but if it's not your intent then I won't put words in your mouth.

 

1 hour ago, Ramza said:

talking point about the current reserves is hardly the most reassuring thing I've heard

 

I mean it's really a question of whether reserves + incoming gas is enough to outlast the winter. Both are well above what Europe would need in a normal winter, so it should be reassuring.

 

Quote

it also most likely only stabilizes the pricing only momentarily. Which is still not good, it's a global issue that goes beyond Europe as well. I'm not sure how much the US and Norway can provide cheap energy but at least that's more reassuring.

 

Futures for European gas are 40% higher in 2023, so there's certainly predictions of an increase for next year. 150 Euros/MHw would still be much cheaper than the peak of 350 Euros/MHw that it was going for in anticipation of an energy crisis back in August.

 

The US and Norway are just never going to be as cheap as Russia. Europe is looking to Africa and will likely find cheap gas there, but there's some moral hypocrisy weening off of Russian gas to switch to something like Algerian gas.

 

Quote

As a Canadian you should know better than to rely on October to predict the upcoming winter. 

 

October being warm isn't a prediction of the incoming winter, just that October being warm didn't use as much gas and more of it could be stored.

 

Quote

Why would Russia stop supplying next year and not earlier if that's one of their clear intents? I imagine they don't care much about economic contracts with NATO allied countries at this point. That pipeline is going mostly to Germany I think, right? 

 

The expectation is that they'll stop supplying right before or shortly after winter begins. The International Energy Agency's resiliency analysis of the EU gas market with a Russian supply shutdown on November 1st would have Europe reserves at 20% at the end of winter with the current levels of LNG importing. A 9% reduction in consumption during winter would see that jump to 40% and is their recommendation to combat a longer winter should one occur.

 

Quote

And why would the Chinese stop selling, aren't they asking for insanely inflated prices right now? I thought they were happy with that situation. They pretty much kept selling Russian energy to the rest of Europe, haven't they? At inflated rates of course.

 

I'm talking about China not importing as much gas right now (hence why so much of it can sit unused outside Europe) because of COVID lockdowns. One would assume China won't have another lockdown next year so next winter Europe will be competing with more Chinese demand for imports of gas.

 

1 hour ago, Ramza said:

All I've said is that I'm open to the idea of diplomacy. Crazy, I know. Which is absolutely all I'm saying, I never once relegated a solid plan (like I would fucking know) or anything other than saying concessions happens in diplomacy, meanwhile for you guys it's all or nothing, which is the most childish and unrealistic thing I've heard in a while.

 

The matter of fact is none of you has yet to propose a realistic scenario where this could stop, you are actually quite satisfied with the status quo it seems. 

 

Everybody here is open to diplomacy, but Russia is the one who is coming to the table with an all or nothing approach.

 

The realistic scenario is Ukraine takes back as much as it can and whatever Russia is actually capable of holding from counter-offensives they'll keep. Until those counter-offensives stall out there is no point in negotiating with Russia when they want territory that Ukraine has already taken back or is capable of taking back. 

[Mr. House 3,371]

10 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

but there's some moral hypocrisy weening off of Russian gas to switch to something like Algerian gas.

First, thank you for the well-informed responses, devoid of insults, it's quite refreshing.

 

I'm not that familiar with Alegria and its geopolitical stance at all but it can't be much worse than buying from Putin, now, is it? 

 

10 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

The expectation is that they'll stop supplying right before or shortly after winter begins. The International Energy Agency's resiliency analysis of the EU gas market with a Russian supply shutdown on November 1st would have Europe reserves at 20% at the end of winter with the current levels of LNG importing. A 9% reduction in consumption during winter would see that jump to 40% and is their recommendation to combat a longer winter should one occur.

I knew it, he's going to shut down the valve at the worst possible time. I don't know why Putin is not using it more as a leverage though. I guess we're at that point.

 

10 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

I'm talking about China not importing as much gas right now (hence why so much of it can sit unused outside Europe) because of COVID lockdowns. One would assume China won't have another lockdown next year so next winter Europe will be competing with more Chinese demand for imports of gas.

Ah, I was thinking oil anyway. I get it now. Not a good prospect for cheap energy in 2023 then. Not that I have any idea how much their imports will raise and how that affects the world's supply.

 

Man, I can't believe they're still doing the 0 Covid policy. Fucking CCP man. Just disgusting. I digress, sorry. 

 

10 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

Everybody here is open to diplomacy, but Russia is the one who is coming to the table with an all or nothing approach.

 

The realistic scenario is Ukraine takes back as much as it can and whatever Russia is actually capable of holding from counter-offensives they'll keep. Until those counter-offensives stall out there is no point in negotiating with Russia when they want territory that Ukraine has already taken back or is capable of taking back. 

Was that always the case? I feel like the west has been hostile to negotiations since the beginning and we're getting closer to a point of no return with each passing escalation. 

 

Don't you think reconquering the ''annexed'' regions is a scary thought? Putin will use those regions to say that Russia is now the one being attacked, I mean we all know it's a joke on the world stage and the referendums are fakes, but he will use this excuse to commit more war crimes or whatever atrocities has justifications. 

 

I see what you mean though, get Ukraine to continue their winning push as much as they can, THEN negotiation from a position of strength. I can't fault that logic. 

 

 

[Twinblade★ 3,935]

Ukraine shouldn’t accept any territorial concessions beyond what Russia already controlled prior to the 24th. And even that’s too much.

 
Putin put himself in a bad position because Ukraine now smells blood in the water and I don’t think they’re going to get to Crimea’s borders and stop there. That’s likely why he annexed Kherson and Zaphorizia, because they will serve as a buffer to protect Crimea.

  
I doubt he gives a shit about the Donbas in comparison. But I don’t think Ukraine can take all of that region back either. Donetsk and Luhansk are massive cities and even with western support I don’t think they have the offensive capabilities to do that without losing a significant chunk of their military.

[Mr. House 3,371]

 

This winter is going to get ugly. Mostly for the civilians that is. 

[Twinblade★ 3,935]

31 minutes ago, Ramza said:

 

This winter is going to get ugly. Mostly for the civilians that is. 

 
They wasted $500 million worth of cruise missiles most of which were shot down. And a lot of the damage from the ones that got through has already been repaired. Russia’s terrorism tactics have been an inconvenience at best so far.

[Mr. House 3,371]

3 hours ago, Twinblade said:

 
They wasted $500 million worth of cruise missiles most of which were shot down. And a lot of the damage from the ones that got through has already been repaired. Russia’s terrorism tactics have been an inconvenience at best so far.

Say that to the Ukrainians. 

[Cooke 2,031]

3 hours ago, Twinblade said:

 
They wasted $500 million worth of cruise missiles most of which were shot down. And a lot of the damage from the ones that got through has already been repaired. Russia’s terrorism tactics have been an inconvenience at best so far.

That's putting it very lightly. Unless having your home or business and possibly family obliterated is an inconvenience.  

Edited November 2, 2022 by Cooke

[Twinblade★ 3,935]

51 minutes ago, Ramza said:

Say that to the Ukrainians. 

 

I don't have to tell them anything. They've already accepted that this is a price they're willing to pay for their freedom. Russia's desperate attempts at forcing them to capitulate aren't working.

[Mr. Impossible 411]

7 hours ago, Ramza said:

Say that to the Ukrainians. 

The ones actively fighting against Russia? 

[Twinblade★ 3,935]

Russian KIA in the last 3 days alone

 

950

620

800

 

Anybody who thinks Russia is somehow holding back is clueless. They've devolved into WW2 tactics of using newly mobilized soldiers as cannon fodder but unlike WW2 they don't have the demographics or military power to sustain these kind of losses over the long term.

 

[Mr. House 3,371]

4 hours ago, Mr. Impossible said:

The ones actively fighting against Russia? 

No, the innocent civilians who had no say in this and are now without water and electricity.

[Hot Sauce 2,734]

1 hour ago, Ramza said:

No, the innocent civilians who had no say in this and are now without water and electricity.

 

Yeah, Russia is pretty evil.

[Twinblade★ 3,935]

1 hour ago, Ramza said:

No, the innocent civilians who had no say in this and are now without water and electricity.

 

Ukrainians are overwhelmingly in support of the war because they know they face an existential crisis and have no choice but to fight. Im not sure why you continue to act like they have no say in the matter when they clearly do.